Panic or Progress? How the 2028 GGSS Cut-Off Is Fueling a Biomethane Boom                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

           

With the end of the Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) looming ever closer, and no replacement yet announced, the UK’s anaerobic digestion (AD) and biomethane sectors are entering a period of rapid acceleration, or as some see it, controlled “panic.” Developers and investors are racing to secure the benefits of the scheme before its closure.

Closing for new applicants on 31 March 2028, the GGSS offers developers a clear but fast-closing window of opportunity. Across the UK, projects are being advanced at record pace, with new AD and grid-connected biomethane plants being commissioned in hopes of meeting the deadline. This surge has injected welcome momentum into renewable gas, but it’s also putting unprecedented pressure on supply chains, contractors, and the planning system that underpins delivery.

Introduced in 2021 to replace the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI), the GGSS was designed to support biomethane production from anaerobic digestion, offering 15 years of guaranteed tariff payments to registered producers.

This long-term revenue certainty made the scheme highly attractive to developers, investors, and lenders alike, particularly in an uncertain financial climate.

But to receive those payments, projects must be fully commissioned before the 2028 deadline.

That sunset clause has become a powerful motivator, driving a wave of feasibility studies, planning applications, and procurement activity across the sector.

However, the rush to deliver is creating challenges of its own, with concerns growing around overextended contractors, inflated costs, and bottlenecks in design and technology supply.

The government’s proposed reforms to the Planning and Infrastructure Bill have added a further layer of complexity. The reforms aim to streamline approvals for “critical infrastructure projects”, including renewable and low-carbon energy facilities; potentially accelerating the route to planning consent.

In theory, this could help developers bring forward new biomethane and AD capacity more efficiently. But in practice, local authorities and planning teams are already under strain, and a surge of applications may overwhelm an already stretched system.

As such, faster consents won’t necessarily translate into faster delivery if skilled labour, specialist equipment, and construction capacity remain limited.

The overlap between the GGSS deadline and planning reform creates a powerful but risky dynamic. Developers are incentivised to move faster, but the compressed timeline and high market demand increase the risk of errors, design compromises, and missed commissioning deadlines, any of which could jeopardise eligibility for tariff support.

The current environment represents both a challenge and an opportunity; on one hand, the drive to complete projects before 2028 could significantly expand the UK’s biomethane capacity, reinforcing its renewable energy mix and supporting national Net Zero targets, and on the other hand, the scale and speed of activity risk overloading supply chains and exposing weaknesses in project planning, feasibility analysis, and technical delivery.

As the countdown continues, developers must strike a careful balance between ambition and execution; ensuring that feasibility studies, planning processes, and construction programmes remain robust and realistic.

For many, success will depend not on how quickly they move, but on how well they manage the process.

Long Term Success Vs. Short Term Opportunity

In the rush to deliver before the GGSS deadline, it’s the projects with solid planning foundations, clear feasibility insight, and strong coordination that will stand the test of time.

As pressure on the sector mounts, thoughtful management and informed decision-making will be what separates long-term success from short-term opportunity.